Actually it's France that has the biggest exposure to Greek debt. That's why Sarkozy was always smooching with Merkel, who is soon to discover the cost of being in power too long, and surrounding herself with people who agree with her absolutely (Mrs T).

When Greece leaves the Euro (not if) it wont precipitate the kind of panic that the popular press would have us all think.

Sure there will be problems, but we will still get up in the morning and get on with the day. And Greece will be a good place for a very cheap holiday (about 3 months after they revert to their old money and then devalue accordingly).

It wont be the end of the World, and money will chase the stable currencies - which places the £ in a good position in my view.

Worse to come possibly ? Greece to leave the Euro and default on repayments of interest on their debts. Following by Spain having to paying higher interest rates, as they come under pressure. Then not to mention Italy, who may also have problems.

German voters will not allow their government to bail out most of Europe. Merkels party have just lost some recent local elections, in the area she represents.

If Europe goes into meltdown, this could have massive implications for the UK's economy and we could see a much deeper recession. UK banks do have a fair amount of exposure in Europe and manufacturing trade would also be hit.

Lets just look forward to Euro football 2012 and the Olympics, hoping that this does not happen.

Ah.

Revised figures show the economy shrank by 0.3%, in Q1 not 0.2% as previously thought.

Seems like the economists were wrong and revising the figures upwards was a touch optimistic. It's got worse.

I wonder if the BoE will go back to providing some quantitative easing to boost the economy?

Graeme
Community Manager
graeme.delap@moneysupermarket,.com

The thought has crossed my mind, huckster. But you know me by now: I'm a firm believer that you should stick around when your country needs you most! ;-)

Excellent post - and a great point about there not being much difference between -0.2% and +0.1%. I've also read that the preliminary figures are based on only 44% of the actual data. As that's less than half, I find it hard to believe, but I still wouldn't be all that surprised!

If these figures are missing a large chunk of March, then I imagine it's likely they will be revised upwards (and possibly into the black).

Also, an excellent point about geography and business sectors. I think it's indisputable that some areas of the UK are doing better than others. The Jubilee and Olympics should help the wider economy from a a tourism and spending point of view - but it will be very interesting to see if that's simply a temporary reprieve, localised to the South East or whether that will buy some all important time for inflation to fall as the BoE expects.

Graeme
Community Manager
graeme.delap@moneysupermarket,.com

Yes we are in a recession, but there is not much difference between growth of +0.1% and decline of -0.2%. The economy overall is basically flat. There are regional and sector differences.

If you visit London for example, you would not see much of a recession. All the restaurants and shops appear to be doing a roaring trade. I suppose this is down to the number of people that work/live there, as well as all the tourists. In other areas of the country they may be experiencing a totally different situation.

In regard to business it depends on what sector you are in and where you trade. If you do business around the world and not solely in Europe, then you may be doing well.

As for the economy it depends on what happens in Italy and Spain. If they run into worse problems, we could see a knock on effect around the Eurozone, which could be a disaster for the UK economy. The pound could increase in value making imports much more expensive and our exports uncompetitive. If that happens, we could see a lasting recession that could go on for many years.

Emigration to Australia or New Zealand must be tempting for some. ( Graeme, you could always mention to your bosses that you would be interested in setting up Moneysupermarket in Aus/NZ. ! )

Looks like we are at the moment. For the first time since 2009.

Preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics show that we've had a second consecutive quarter of negative growth (love that term) which basically means we are officially in recession.

The economy shrank by 0.2% between January and March of this year. This follows on from the economy shrinking by 0.3% between October and December 2011.

Output from the construction industry dropped by 3% while manufacturing/production industry fell by 0.3%.

So, what do you think? Is this a double-dip recession? Will the ONS revise its figures in the coming month? How will it affect you?

As always, I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.

Graeme
Community Manager
graeme.delap@moneysupermarket.com