ATM:

axisme,

Can you really see a "mini recovery" occurring with house prices in the UK?. The banks still need some encouragement to start lending again and 25% deposits to get decent rates are still likely to deter first time buyers.

Going back to 1992/93 which was the period of the end of the last house price correction and the initial recovery stage, we would see 1 or 2 months of rises in the House Price indices followed by a fall of 1 month or more which would wipe out the gain. As far as I remember the initial stage of recovery was counted as when there were a minimum of 4 months straight rises and in fact the market just bounces at or slightly above the bottom level for 18 months to 2 years.

I am in full agreement with the other points you raise regarding rates increasing again (as in 1980/81 recession), "the follow the herd" rush into the market especially with 100% mortgages and the shortage of housing which will be a problem for at least the next 15 years. After all when we see another new development starting......

By mini recovery, I mean that we will likely see 3 or so months of small increases. Purely because people don't feel their savings are doing enough. Some who were biding their time will take a what the hell attitude.

I still think house prices will fall 10% or so over the next year, but that doesn't mean they have to drop months on month.