What will happen to house prices in 2012?

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Published:
28 December 2011
Topic:
News,Money,Mortgages

The property market has proved remarkably resilient in recent months, despite the increasingly gloomy economic backdrop. House prices rose by 1% nationally in 2011according to Nationwide Building Society with London seeing the strongest growth at 5.5%. However, the picture was very different in Northern Ireland where property values dropped by 8.9%. But what does 2012 hold in store for homeowners and buyers?

Figures from Halifax indicate that, while both the UK and global economies have struggled, house sales and the supply of properties on the market have remained relatively stable since late 2010.

As a result, latest figures show that the average property price in November, at £161,731, is almost the same as at the end of last year. And the bank, one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, does not expect much to change much over the next 12 months either.

This is because it thinks that positive drivers, such as the improved affordability of mortgage payments thanks to low interest rates, will be offset by negative factors including rising unemployment.

Halifax's housing economist, Martin Ellis, said: "Overall, we expect continuing broad stability in house prices nationally during 2012. 

"Prices are again likely to end the year at levels close to where they began with the market continuing to lack any real direction."

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, agreed: "2012 isn't shaping up to be much better than 2011, for the UK economy or the housing market."

Not all good news...

The economic uncertainty in the Eurozone makes the current property market very difficult to judge, and not all housing market forecasters agree with Halifax and Nationwide's predictions of static prices.

Upmarket estate agent Knight Frank, for example, is predicting falls of up to 5%. It believes that the struggling economy, public sector cuts and rising unemployment across the board will work together to push prices down.

And IHS Global Insight is also forecasting a 5% fall as mortgage lenders retighten their belts, keeping cash-strapped first-time buyers locked out of the market.

The National Association of Estate Agents, meanwhile, is broadly in agreement with Halifax that the market will bump along the bottom, with no significant rises or falls.

Analysts at Rightmove, however, expect house prices to increase by about 2% over the next 12 months - driven by the number of sellers in the market slumping to just 1.2million.

What about regional discrepancies?

The predictions above are based on the country as a whole. However, not all cities and regions will experience the same conditions in 2012.

Property market watchers expect prices to be strongest in London and the South East as these regions have a better chance of performing well economically over the next 12 months.

Indeed, Knight Frank is predicting price increases of 5% in Central London, despite its otherwise pessimistic view of the year.

Weak economic growth and dependence on public sector employment - one of the sectors hardest hit by the government's cost-cutting drive - are expected to constrain prices in other parts of the country.

The price your home will sell for, or the amount you can expect to pay for a property, could depend on factors as specific as the very street it is on, though.

Rightmove's analysts believe that within just a few miles you will find areas with lots of flats and houses for sale and rock bottom prices, and others with far fewer properties available, leading to significantly higher prices.

And interest rates?

Halifax expects the Bank of England base rate to remain at its current level of 0.5% until the end of 2012. This is partly because pressure on household incomes is already high without increasing homeowners' mortgage repayments.

"Continuing low rates should support the favourable affordability position for those who already have a mortgage, helping to keep down the numbers forced to sell their properties because they cannot keep up with their payments," Martin Ellis said. 

Tellingly, his opinion is shared by many of the large investment banks, most of which are predicting that global interest rates will remain at their current low levels for at least the next 12 months.

MoneySupermarket's Kevin Mountford also agrees."It is unlikely that the Bank of England will increase interest rates any time soon," he said.

Conclusion

The fact that several housing market forecasters are sitting on the fence when it comes to their predictions for 2012 illustrates what a tough time they are having working out where prices will go.

However, the broad consensus appears to be for prices to stay more or less where they are, or perhaps fall a bit - especially outside London.

It is important to remember, though, that the housing market is driven by buyers and sellers, not property analysts. And the results of the latest Rightmove Consumer Price Forecast, which reveals what homeowners themselves think, indicate that confidence is remarkably high.

It shows that while some 63% of prospective home movers expect prices to remain the same or rise, less than a third - or 31% - believe that they will fall. Should this level of confidence prevail over the coming months, the strength of the market could therefore surprise even the best-informed analysts and researchers.

Please note: Any rates or deals mentioned in this article were available at the time of writing.
 

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About This Author

Jessica Bown

Financial journalist

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